On December 12, 2024, the Forum Energy Outlook 2025 took place at the Polish Army Museum in Warsaw. It was a landmark event that brought together leading representatives from the worlds of politics business, and the energy sector. The forum was organized by UNIMOT, Poland’s largest independent fuel and energy group, and the BIRM Institute, a think tank focusing on economic, geopolitical, financial, and military issues. The conference provided a platform for analyzing the key challenges and risks facing the industry in the context of a rapidly changing political and economic environment.
Geopolitical changes, such as the war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, pose significant challenges for the energy sector, impacting global security. UNIMOT Group and the BIRM Institute, organizers of the Forum Energy Outlook 2025, recognized the need to create a platform for substantive discussions about the future of the industry in the context of these challenges.
“Energy Outlook 2025 is a unique opportunity for us to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing Poland's energy sector alongside experts and industry leaders. By organizing this event, we aimed to create a space for dialogue and collaboration, which are essential for building a secure and sustainable energy future,” said Adam Sikorski, President of the Management Board of UNIMOT S.A.
The Forum featured distinguished speakers, including Mark Brzezinski, the U.S. Ambassador to Poland, and Tomasz Siemoniak, the Minister of Interior and Administration, who delivered welcoming remarks to participants. In-depth analyses were presented by Kurt Volker, U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations (2017–2019) and U.S. Ambassador to NATO (2008–2009), Professor Karl Rose, a senior executive in the energy sector, and Marek Budzisz, a specialist in Russian and post-Soviet Eastern policies as well as military and strategic issues.
The conference concluded with a discussion panel where insights were shared by Robert Rudich, Energy Attaché and Director of the DOE Poland Office, Professor Bogusław Pacek, Director of the Polish Army Museum, Dr. Adam Sikorski, President of the Management Board of UNIMOT S.A., and Kurt Volker. The panel was moderated by Wojciech Jakóbik, an energy sector analyst.
The conference participants discussed the prospects and forecasts for 2025, focusing on topics such as energy security in times of uncertainty and the energy transition's impact on politics and the economy. The international expertise of the invited guests allowed for placing these issues within a broader geopolitical and macroeconomic context.
“Thank you for focusing on the topic of energy security. I am proud of what the U.S. and Poland have achieved in this area. This collaboration will only get stronger,” emphasized Mark Brzezinski, the U.S. Ambassador to Poland.
"Today, no one approaches security in a fragmented way. Energy security is a crucial component of it. It is at the center of attention for every government in Europe and around the world. Without it, the economy and the state cannot function. This is a topic for every Polish family, every Polish company," said Tomasz Siemoniak, the Minister of Interior and Administration.
"2040 is just around the corner. There is little time for such a massive transformation. We must be open to new ideas, learn from others, and adopt what others do well. We should not be ashamed if we achieve the 2040 goal in 2050. A goal is just a goal. And we are paying too little attention to research, and not adequately funding higher education institutions. We are training fewer engineers than architects or communication specialists," stated Professor Karl Rose, Senior Executive in the Energy Sector.
"The Draghi report showed that there has been a complete disconnect between decision-makers and engineers. Perhaps at some point, politicians approached engineers and were told that the energy transition they envisioned could not be done. Engineers tend to stay in their comfort zones. Engineers have distorted this world, not out of ill will. If the young engineers who are being trained today have the desire for the planet to be better and cleaner, they will believe in this transition and make it happen. In China, the energy mix that was supposed to look like in 2030 is what it looks like today. Because there, politicians, scientists, and companies are working together. This is what we need in Poland and the Western world," said Adam Sikorski, President of the Management Board of UNIMOT S.A.
"Without a doubt, we will see very strong American leadership in the world. Not all problems can be solved immediately, but there are those that can be resolved more quickly—they just need a certain catalyst. Trump's election could serve as that catalyst. Especially considering it was a decisive victory," said Kurt Volker, U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations (2017-2019) and U.S. Ambassador to NATO (2008-2009).
"The next six months will be a critical time that may determine the future of Ukraine. But also, how our country responds will determine Poland's position in the coming years, and possibly even decades," emphasized Marek Budzisz, Strategy & Future Expert, specializing in Russia and the post-Soviet East, as well as military and strategic policy.
"The war in Ukraine is not just a war between soldiers, not only civilians are victims; it is also fought with energy tools. And it seems that Putin is more focused on defeating Ukrainian energy infrastructure than on destroying military targets. This is also the nature of future wars. It is a battle for a new division of global energy markets – this is already a consequence of the war," said prof. dr hab. Bogusław Pacek, Major General (Ret.), Director of the Polish Army Museum.
Referring to the diversification of supply sources, Wojciech Jakóbik, energy sector analyst, stated: "We have also heard the 'it can't be done' narrative for years regarding gas—that it can only come via pipeline. Until Russia itself started exporting it as LNG. The same was true for nuclear energy. Fortunately, today, we have a different situation in Poland regarding this issue."
Additionally, the event featured a Q&A with the audience regarding the future of energy security, including forecasts for oil prices in 2025. The majority of conference participants predicted that the price of a barrel of oil would hover between 60-75 USD, indicating no major fluctuations on the oil market in 2025.
Participants, including leading experts and industry leaders, emphasized the importance of international cooperation and the integration of various political, economic, and technological aspects to ensure a stable energy future. The organizers, UNIMOT and the BIRM Institute, created a platform for substantive dialogue that could influence the further development of Polish and international energy.
